Full Circle The Outcomes Ledger

The paper record says what was supposed to happen.

These are the outcomes the system rarely reports on itself, because it would be reporting on its own failures. Each one is defined here before any data arrives, so the measure cannot quietly change later to fit whatever turns up.

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Which state spends the most on education?GeorgiaCompare Texas and CaliforniaHighest federal shareChild welfare in OhioBills in WyomingLowest money out
Awaiting data

Placement stability

How many times was a child moved, and were siblings kept together or split apart?

Every move restarts a child’s life — new house, new school, new adults to trust. The count of moves is one of the few things the record does hold.

Source: AFCARS

Awaiting data

Maltreatment in care

Abuse, neglect or assault that happened inside a placement.

The number most likely to be undercounted, precisely because the agency responsible for the child is the same one that would have to report it.

Source: NCANDS

Awaiting data

Running away, and going missing

Including the trafficking-risk window that opens when a child runs.

A child who runs is not a discipline problem. They are a child who is now unprotected, and the clock starts immediately.

Source: AFCARS

Needs linkage

Education and health continuity

Schools changed, care interrupted, conditions left untreated.

Continuity is what a stable childhood actually consists of. It is also what a move quietly destroys.

Source: AFCARS + Medicaid/CHIP

Needs linkage

Aging-out outcomes

Housing and homelessness, employment, education, justice involvement, early parenthood — and mortality.

The cliff at eighteen. Mortality is on this list because a child who did not survive must never simply drop out of the data as though they aged out fine.

Source: NYTD + HMIS + vital records

Needs linkage

Removals that should not have happened

Cases where a child was taken on a claim the record itself later contradicts.

This is not a judgement about any person. It is the record disagreeing with itself, which is a fact about the file, and a reason for a human being to look.

Source: Court records + AFCARS

Why no numbers are shown yet

Awaiting data

Defined and ready. The federal file is a manual download under a data-use agreement — there is no public API — so no figure is shown rather than an invented one.

Needs linkage

Requires the token to join two or more systems, which is Phase 3. Defined now so the measure cannot quietly change later to fit whatever data arrives.

Checks & Balances is trusted because every figure is reproducible from an official source. The same rule governs this page. AFCARS, NCANDS and NYTD have no public API — they are manual downloads under a data-use agreement — so this ships with the measures defined and not one invented number. A fabricated outcome figure about children would cost more than it bought.

The systems a token would join

A child's true story is scattered across systems that never talk to each other. Because the same person carries the same token in each, the picture can be assembled without the identity ever being assembled.

SystemWhat it holdsHow it is obtained
AFCARSFoster care — placements, moves, exitsNDACAN, data-use agreement
NCANDSAbuse and neglect reports and findingsNDACAN, data-use agreement
NYTDOutcomes survey of youth aging outNDACAN, data-use agreement
Medicaid / CHIPPhysical and behavioural health, and gaps in careState agreement
Juvenile & adult justiceInvolvement before and after aging outState agreement
HMISHomelessness records — the aging-out cliffCoC agreement
EducationEnrolment, mobility, completionState agreement
CourtsDependency and family court — removals, evidence, guardiansCourt agreement
Vital recordsSo a child who did not survive is never dropped from the dataState agreement

This is not speculative: Chapin Hall's Multistate Foster Care Data Archive already links foster-care records across states, and privacy-preserving record linkage is established practice in health and administrative research. The method is proven; what is new is applying it, under this encryption, to this population.